3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,056 sqft ·
Built 1952
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 109 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,623/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$834
Tax + insurance
−$232
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$341
Net cashflow
$216/mo
Annual
$2,594/yr
Cap rate
7.92%
Cash-on-cash
5.83%
DSCR
1.26
1% rule
1.02%
Cash to close
$44,520
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $145k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in TX, #4,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 921 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Angleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-J82DV3D2HWD7TS
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29