15808 Via Del Alba

Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

$5,395,000D

5 bd · 6.0 ba · 4,894 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,252/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$28,292
• Tax + insurance: −$5,433
• HOA: −$3
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,883
• Net cashflow: $-15,358/mo
• Annual: $-184,296/yr
• Cap rate: 2.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.15%
• DSCR: 0.46
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $1,510,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $5.39M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15k ($-184k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.68M (50.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.33M (56.9% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($4.91M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.33M (56.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $306k of equity ($37k loan paydown + $269k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#462 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute C-, housing D, amenities F.
• San Dieguito Union High (urban): math 72% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #56 of 1,400 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 25 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $3.06M; list at $5.39M implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$490k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 0.9% in Rancho Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?