14890 Perris #17

Moreno Valley, CA 92553

$65,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 804 sqft · Built 1962 · Manufactured · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,046/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $1,167/mo
• Annual: $14,008/yr
• Cap rate: 27.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.97%
• DSCR: 4.42
• 1% rule: 3.15%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#838 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Moreno Valley Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #1,050 of 1,400 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $47k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 27.8% vs local median 3.9% in Moreno Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major: Flooring — Uneven and in poor condition
• Major: Interior walls — Paint chipped and peeling
• Major: Roof — Cannot confirm condition