331 Bush Rd

Altona, NY 12959

$159,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,267/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$314
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-151/mo
• Annual: $-1,817/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-151 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (20.8% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,166 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Northeastern Clinton Central School District (rural): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #203 of 590 in NY (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northeastern Clinton Middle School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 277 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 63% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Northeastern Clinton Central School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 192 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clinton County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $160k implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.