108 Durham Rd

Newtown, PA 18940

$450,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,867/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$532
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-628/mo
• Annual: $-7,533/yr
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.98%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-628 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $339k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (36.3% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $287k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#163 in PA, #1,356 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Council Rock SD (suburban): math 56% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #36 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Newtown El Sch (math 58% / reading 76%, grade B+, #202 of 1,518 statewide, top 15%, 582 students, 11% FRL); Newtown Ms (math 49% / reading 73%, grade B+, #36 of 512 statewide, top 7%, 851 students, 9% FRL); Council Rock Hs North (math 92% / reading 24%, grade C, #84 of 437 statewide, top 19%, 1,622 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 1.9% in Newtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.