3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,636 sqft ·
Built 1982
· Condo
· Pending
· 19 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,356/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$681
Tax + insurance
−$208
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$495
Net cashflow
$972/mo
Annual
$11,666/yr
Cap rate
15.27%
Cash-on-cash
32.07%
DSCR
2.43
1% rule
1.81%
Cash to close
$36,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $130k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $972 ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#264 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
Lake Dallas ISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #413 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Lake Dallas El (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,429 of 4,322 statewide, top 57%, 534 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 36% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-JB02D4DVC34DXZ
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29