2352 Union Church Rd

Bedford, VA 24174

$360,000C-

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,678 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,640/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax + insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-31/mo
• Annual: $-372/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $100,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-372/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $355k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (26.7% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#137 in VA, #4,371 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Middle (math 49% / reading 67%, grade B, #174 of 342 statewide, top 51%, 535 students, 86% FRL); Liberty High (math 41% / reading 68%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 726 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 30% district-wide (48 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $101k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Bedford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.