30 Chelsea Cir

Cloverdale, CA 95425

$175,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,519/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $781/mo
• Annual: $9,367/yr
• Cap rate: 11.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.12%
• DSCR: 1.85
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $781 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#442 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D, schools F.
• Cloverdale Unified (town): math 29% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #967 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 1.6% in Cloverdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: exterior siding — Weathered and discolored
• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — Older and dated
• Moderate: bathroom fixtures — Older and dated
• Moderate: HVAC units — Older and worn