24 Firehouse Rd

Cumberland, VA 23040

$215,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 955 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,381/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-209/mo
• Annual: $-2,504/yr
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.16%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-209 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (35.8% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#499 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland County Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #113 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland Elementary (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 541 students, 99% FRL); Cumberland Middle (math 29% / reading 54%, grade F, #299 of 342 statewide, top 88%, 352 students, 100% FRL); Cumberland High (math 17% / reading 77%, grade D-, #305 of 319 statewide, top 97%, 390 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 61% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.1% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.