376 E Melrose Ct

Decatur, IL 62526

$149,900D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,154 sqft · Built 1954 · Other · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,320/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$259
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-2/mo
• Annual: $-21/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-21/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (11.9% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stephen Decatur Middle School (math 0% / reading 5%, grade F, #658 of 665 statewide, top 99%, 459 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $150k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.