12-14 Howard St

Auburn, NY 13021

$194,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,192 sqft · Built 1890 · Townhouse · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,820/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $91/mo
• Annual: $1,091/yr
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.00%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $54,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $195k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (6.6% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#298 in NY, #4,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, employment D-.
• Auburn City School District (town): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #558 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Owasco Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 370 students, 46% FRL); Auburn Junior High School (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 598 students, 81% FRL); Auburn High School (math 88% / reading 84%, grade A, #347 of 1,100 statewide, top 32%, 1,183 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 42% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Auburn City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Metal roof — Significant wear and tear
• Major: Siding — Severe weathering and staining
• Major: HVAC system — Exposed and old components