3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,765 sqft ·
Built 2003
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 38 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,146/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,153
Tax + insurance
−$423
HOA
−$113
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$451
Net cashflow
$6/mo
Annual
$72/yr
Cap rate
6.33%
Cash-on-cash
0.12%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.98%
Cash to close
$61,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($72/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (2.4% below list).
It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $213k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#389 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Red Oak Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #689 of 1,228 statewide, top 58%, 619 students, 54% FRL); Dutchtown Middle School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #258 of 470 statewide, top 55%, 1,092 students, 50% FRL); Dutchtown High (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #84 of 424 statewide, top 20%, 1,861 students, 43% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 611 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Stockbridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-JDFNTE0WHBNJ3E
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29