309 Main St

Oxford Junction, IA 52323

$69,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $863/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax + insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $226/mo
• Annual: $2,714/yr
• Cap rate: 10.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.05%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $19,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($863 rent vs $69k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($477 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#798 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Midland Community School District (rural): math 57% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #231 of 289 in IA (top 80%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Midland Elementary (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #363 of 616 statewide, top 62%, 205 students, 51% FRL); Midland Middle/High School (math 56% / reading 67%, grade B-, #255 of 336 statewide, top 76%, 303 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jones County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $69k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.