2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
864 sqft ·
Built 1951
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 37 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,853/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,232
Tax + insurance
−$268
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$389
Net cashflow
$-37/mo
Annual
$-440/yr
Cap rate
6.11%
Cash-on-cash
-0.67%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$65,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-440/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (2.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (21.2% below list).
It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $185k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#406 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Orange City Elementary School (math 35% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 615 students, 68% FRL); University High School (math 28% / reading 46%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,901 students, 49% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
11 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-JE804100QV8654
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29