9 bd · 7.0 ba ·
4,096 sqft ·
Built 1970
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 289 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$13,301/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,977
Tax + insurance
−$1,147
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,793
Net cashflow
$4,384/mo
Annual
$52,614/yr
Cap rate
11.84%
Cash-on-cash
19.80%
DSCR
1.88
1% rule
1.40%
Cash to close
$265,720
Investor read
This is a 6 × 9-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $949k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($53k/yr) — positive. Per door: $731/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $949k).
It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($835k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $835k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#111 in CA, #3,863 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, cost of living F.
Yuba City Unified (urban): math 20% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #263 of 517 in CA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 149 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Sutter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sutter County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $740k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $266k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.6% in Yuba City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $13,301/mo this rent would consume 226% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1674% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-JEG5SQCANMQBAH
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29