582 Fm 246

Wortham, TX 76693

$69,668B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,264/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$365
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $535/mo
• Annual: $6,418/yr
• Cap rate: 15.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.90%
• DSCR: 2.46
• 1% rule: 1.81%
• Cash to close: $19,507

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $535 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($482 loan paydown + $802 appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,128 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wortham ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #523 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wortham El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 255 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Freestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Freestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen countertops — damaged and in need of replacement
• Major: bathroom fixtures — broken and in need of replacement
• Major: exterior vegetation — overgrown and requires trimming
• Major: damaged siding — visible damage and needs repair
• Major: damaged windows — boarded-up and need replacement
• Major: damaged flooring — hardwood floors in poor condition