3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,216 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Manufactured
· Active
· 42 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,293/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$158
Tax + insurance
−$50
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$272
Net cashflow
$814/mo
Annual
$9,763/yr
Cap rate
38.73%
Cash-on-cash
115.85%
DSCR
6.15
1% rule
4.30%
Cash to close
$8,428
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $814 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $208 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $903 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
O Fallon Twp Hsd 203 (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #145 of 620 in IL (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Central Elem School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,141 of 2,056 statewide, top 59%, 366 students, 0% FRL); Joseph Arthur Middle School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #550 of 665 statewide, top 84%, 234 students, 0% FRL); O Fallon High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #120 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 2,521 students, 0% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the O Fallon Twp Hsd 203 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 38.7% vs local median 3.5% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— Significant wear and tear visible
Major: siding
— Aging and potential damage
Major: landscaping
— Overgrown and needs trimming
CashFlowRE · CFR-JFDD042P4C2T1Z
· Data 1 month agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29