7043 State Hwy 32 #22

Orland, CA 95963

$15,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,330 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 210 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,314/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax + insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $946/mo
• Annual: $11,354/yr
• Cap rate: 81.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 270.33%
• DSCR: 13.03
• 1% rule: 8.76%
• Cash to close: $4,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $15k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $946 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $13k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#718 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Orland Joint Unified (town): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #476 of 517 in CA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 108 units permitted in Glenn County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Glenn County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 82.0% vs local median 2.7% in Orland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.