4415 Rosebud Ln

La Mesa, CA 91941

$2,650,000B-

12 bd · 10.0 ba · 5,940 sqft · Built 1959 · MultiFamily · Active · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $34,264/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,897
• Tax + insurance: −$2,640
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,195
• Net cashflow: $10,532/mo
• Annual: $126,379/yr
• Cap rate: 11.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.03%
• DSCR: 1.76
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $742,000

Investor read

• This is a 10 × 8-bed/10.0-bath units multifamily listed at $2.65M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($126k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($34k rent vs $2.65M).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.41M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $18k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $80k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#137 in CA, #4,758 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• La Mesa-Spring Valley (suburban): math 41% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #478 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 118 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $950k; list at $2.65M implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $742k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.0% in La Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $34,264/mo this rent would consume 356% of the median local household income ($115k/yr) (locally 1065% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.