5 Columbia Dr #9

Barney's Junction, WA 99141

$171,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 269 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,142/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$897
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $-200/mo
• Annual: $-2,402/yr
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.35%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $47,880

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $171k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (33.2% below list).
• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kettle Falls School District (rural): math 37% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #171 of 291 in WA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kettle Falls Elementary School (304 students, 62% FRL); Kettle Falls Middle School (237 students, 68% FRL); Kettle Falls High School (237 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 46% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Ferry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ferry County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.6% in Barney's Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.