26716 Fishermans Rd

Paisley, FL 32767

$250,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,334 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$319
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-326/mo
• Annual: $-3,916/yr
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.59%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (34.0% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $165k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#563 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Seminole Springs Elementary School (math 63% / reading 58%, grade B-, #664 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 479 students, 57% FRL); Umatilla Middle School (math 58% / reading 46%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 595 students, 57% FRL); Umatilla High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 861 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $250k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?