1111 Poseidon Dr

Portland, TX 78374

$236,999D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,050/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,243
• Tax + insurance: −$395
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-18/mo
• Annual: $-217/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $66,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-217/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (13.5% below list).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#36 in TX, #1,740 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gregory-Portland ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #314 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Andrews El (math 35% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 636 students, 64% FRL); Gregory-Portland Middle (math 43% / reading 39%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 1,124 students, 48% FRL); Gregory-Portland H S (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 1,464 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Portland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.