406-408 S Cameron St

Winchester, VA 22601

$429,000C+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,724 sqft · Built 1869 · MultiFamily · Coming Soon · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,968/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax + insurance: −$346
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,043
• Net cashflow: $1,329/mo
• Annual: $15,953/yr
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.28%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $120,120

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $429k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive. Per door: $443/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $429k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#138 in VA, #4,429 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: commute F.
• Winchester City Public School District (urban): math 52% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #73 of 131 in VA (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1869 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Winchester city in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Winchester County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $120k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.1% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,968/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 1627% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1869 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.