431 Van Rensselaer Rd

Utica, NY 13502

$209,500F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Pending · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,331/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,099
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $-288/mo
• Annual: $-3,450/yr
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.88%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $58,660

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (36.5% below list).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (36.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $210k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 7.7% in Utica — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?