3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,374 sqft ·
Built 1935
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,552/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$396
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$326
Net cashflow
$-34/mo
Annual
$-412/yr
Cap rate
6.04%
Cash-on-cash
-0.89%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.94%
Cash to close
$46,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-412/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (3.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (5.9% below list).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $155k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,027 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
Sherman ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #546 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Crutchfield El (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 408 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 60% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 479 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
8 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10206% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Sherman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-JGM2KPFREYY3HH
· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29