3110 Aspen Dr

Cape Girardeau, MO 63701

$154,000C+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,593/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax + insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $296/mo
• Annual: $3,550/yr
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.23%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $43,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $154k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#297 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Cape Girardeau 63 (urban): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #188 of 324 in MO (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clippard Elem. (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #850 of 1,115 statewide, top 78%, 470 students, 0% FRL); Central High (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #234 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 1,341 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 326 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Cape Girardeau County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cape Girardeau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.9% in Cape Girardeau — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.