31 Croxton Ave

Oakland, CA 94611

$1,625,000C-

8 bd · 8.0 ba · 4,640 sqft · Built 1957 · MultiFamily · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $17,346/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,522
• Tax + insurance: −$2,807
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,643
• Net cashflow: $2,375/mo
• Annual: $28,502/yr
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.26%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $455,000

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/8.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.62M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $1.62M).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.53M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.53M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $49k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#224 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Oakland Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,007 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Piedmont Avenue Elementary (332 students, 78% FRL); Westlake Middle (314 students, 87% FRL); Oakland Technical High (1,796 students, 57% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.16M; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.5% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $17,346/mo this rent would consume 115% of the median local household income ($181k/yr) (locally 1668% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.