5400 Meeker #133

Kalama, WA 98625

$133,900B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,578 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Pending · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,016/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$702
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $700/mo
• Annual: $8,405/yr
• Cap rate: 12.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.42%
• DSCR: 2.00
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $37,492

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $134k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $700 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#217 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Kalama School District (rural): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #124 of 291 in WA (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 2.0% in Kalama — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.