3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,534 sqft ·
Built 1915
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 85 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,077/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$295
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$436
Net cashflow
$297/mo
Annual
$3,566/yr
Cap rate
8.08%
Cash-on-cash
6.37%
DSCR
1.28
1% rule
1.04%
Cash to close
$56,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#164 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D-, crime D-.
Cecil County Public Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #15 of 24 in MD (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 563 units permitted in Cecil County in 2024 (330 in 5+ unit buildings).
16 sale attempts since 31y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $70k; list at $200k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.2% in North East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-JJC5Q3EQ1F4S2P
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29