1512 Forney St

Oxford, AL 36203

$179,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,595 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,439/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $78/mo
• Annual: $938/yr
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.86%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($938/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (20.0% below list).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#13 in AL, #3,446 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Oxford City (urban): math 27% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #22 of 129 in AL (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 113 active listings in the ZIP; 135 units permitted in Calhoun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calhoun County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in Oxford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.