448 Dorothy Ave

Holly Hill, FL 32117

$197,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 249 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,625/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax + insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-105/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $55,160

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $197k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-105/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (17.5% below list).
• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#325 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holly Hill School (math 27% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,149 students, 79% FRL); Mainland High School (math 30% / reading 37%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,855 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 51% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Volusia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.