162 Holsberry Ln #3

Ensley, FL 32534

$69,500C+

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,174/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $1,237/mo
• Annual: $14,841/yr
• Cap rate: 27.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.27%
• DSCR: 4.39
• 1% rule: 3.13%
• Cash to close: $19,460

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#133 in FL, #1,996 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: L. D. Mcarthur Elementary School (math 44% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 593 students, 65% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 27.6% vs local median 4.6% in Ensley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exposed beams — Structural integrity compromised
• Major: Cluttered countertops — Aesthetic and functionality issues
• Major: Outdated appliances — Aesthetic and functionality issues