836 Park Ave

Newport, KY 41071

$485,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,853 sqft · Built 1893 · SingleFamily · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,286/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$690
• Net cashflow: $-242/mo
• Annual: $-2,901/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $135,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $485k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-242 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $442k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $329k (32.3% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $329k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#58 in KY, #1,070 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Newport Independent (suburban): math 14% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #160 of 165 in KY (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newport Intermediate School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #607 of 676 statewide, top 91%, 387 students, 89% FRL); Newport High School (math 16% / reading 28%, grade F, #202 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 579 students, 84% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1893 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 239 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 247 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (77 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,286/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 1136% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1893 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.