4528 415th Ave NE

Braham, MN 55006

$169,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,229 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$209
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-68/mo
• Annual: $-818/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-818/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (23.1% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $130k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#255 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Braham Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #170 of 301 in MN (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 191 units permitted in Isanti County in 2024 (28 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Isanti County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 10 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.