727 Palm Frond Way #11

Carolina Shores, NC 28467

$244,990D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,734 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Pending · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,232/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$180
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-109/mo
• Annual: $-1,314/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $68,597

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (8.9% below list).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $223k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#352 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 691 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Carolina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.