2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,280 sqft ·
Built 1972
· Manufactured
· Active
· 135 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,064/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,196
Tax + insurance
−$136
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$433
Net cashflow
$299/mo
Annual
$3,591/yr
Cap rate
7.87%
Cash-on-cash
5.62%
DSCR
1.25
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$63,840
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $228k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (9.5% below list).
It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $201k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,149 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Two Bunch Palms Elementary (711 students, 97% FRL); Painted Hills Middle (741 students, 98% FRL); Desert Hot Springs High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,742 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 73% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 521 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $92k; list at $228k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.9% in Desert Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,064/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2095% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-JM33284KFGNG4D
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29