284 Watts Rd

New Johnsonville, TN 37134

$85,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $792/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $38/mo
• Annual: $459/yr
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.93%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($459/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $79k (6.8% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $79k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#151 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humphreys County (rural): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #103 of 139 in TN (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary (math 23% / reading 18%, grade F, #637 of 952 statewide, top 68%, 381 students, 0% FRL); Waverly Central High School (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #156 of 332 statewide, top 49%, 503 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 49% district-wide (49 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Humphreys County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Humphreys County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 22% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $85k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.