Palm Beach Plan

Lisbon, FL 34788

$144,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,967/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $553/mo
• Annual: $6,631/yr
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.34%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $40,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#642 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 5.5% in Lisbon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.