Davilla Plan

Houston, TX 77484

$199,990D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,353 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 296 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,731/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax + insurance: −$330
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $0/mo
• Annual: $1/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $55,398

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($1/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (13.5% below list).
• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.