5 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,579 sqft ·
Built 1960
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 59 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,799/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$954
Tax + insurance
−$302
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$378
Net cashflow
$164/mo
Annual
$1,972/yr
Cap rate
7.38%
Cash-on-cash
3.87%
DSCR
1.17
1% rule
0.99%
Cash to close
$50,960
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $182k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (1.2% below list).
It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $177k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: T J Austin El (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 334 students, 99% FRL); Boulter Middle (math 28% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 853 students, 93% FRL); Tyler H S (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,164 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 66% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tyler ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 10300% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-JNFAWW4V3KQ357
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29