3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,961 sqft ·
Built 1982
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 120 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,900/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$183
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$399
Net cashflow
$479/mo
Annual
$5,751/yr
Cap rate
9.89%
Cash-on-cash
12.84%
DSCR
1.57
1% rule
1.19%
Cash to close
$44,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $146k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#34 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: commute D, employment D, amenities F.
Benson Unified School District (79226) (town): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #98 of 249 in AZ (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 263 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $56k; list at $160k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.5% in Benson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-JNJFNGBCN6FXWA
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29