4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,638 sqft ·
Built 1977
· Condo
· Pending
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,907/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$334
HOA
−$325
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$400
Net cashflow
$-44/mo
Annual
$-528/yr
Cap rate
5.98%
Cash-on-cash
-1.11%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
1.12%
Cash to close
$47,572
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $170k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-528/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (4.6% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $162k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Myra Terwilliger Elementary School (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 586 students, 79% FRL); Fort Clarke Middle School (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 961 students, 53% FRL); F. W. Buchholz High School (math 49% / reading 66%, grade C, #125 of 667 statewide, top 19%, 2,540 students, 36% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $73k; list at $170k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $1,907/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 3418% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-JNZ0JH51FQQQNP
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29