79 Iris Dr

Calistoga, CA 94515

$390,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 2018 · Manufactured · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,909/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$349
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$821
• Net cashflow: $694/mo
• Annual: $8,323/yr
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.35%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $109,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $694 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $390k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $378k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#448 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Calistoga Joint Unified (town): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #624 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $270k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.4% in Calistoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.