2505 New Haven Cir #109

Sun City Center, FL 33573

$154,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,238 sqft · Built 1995 · Condo · Pending · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,927/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$689
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-237/mo
• Annual: $-2,849/yr
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.57%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $155k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (22.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#178 in FL, #2,736 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 602 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $129k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: Kitchen cabinets — Worn and showing signs of wear.
• Moderate: Bathroom fixtures — Worn and showing signs of wear.
• Minor: Exterior siding — Some areas show discoloration, but no major damage visible.
• Moderate: Interior walls/paint — Paint appears chipped and worn in some areas.
• Moderate: Flooring — Hardwood flooring in living areas appears worn.
• Unknown: HVAC — No visible issues, but age is unknown from photos.