7937 State Highway 194e

Pikeville, KY 41539

$119,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Pending · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,162/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $82/mo
• Annual: $978/yr
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.94%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($978/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (2.3% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#139 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pike County Central High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 601 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $119k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.7% in Pikeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.