6 Loblolly Ln

Jackson, NJ 08527

$150,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,839/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $1,206/mo
• Annual: $14,470/yr
• Cap rate: 15.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.45%
• DSCR: 2.53
• 1% rule: 1.89%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Elms Elementary School (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #523 of 1,303 statewide, top 40%, 658 students, 20% FRL); Carl W. Goetz Middle School (math 32% / reading 54%, grade D-, #167 of 431 statewide, top 41%, 989 students, 22% FRL); Jackson Memorial High School (math 28% / reading 57%, grade F, #166 of 399 statewide, top 42%, 1,499 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $150k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.