Churchill (Amberly) Plan

Scottsburg, IN 47170

$85,995F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 325 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,368/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$805
• Tax + insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$390
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-371/mo
• Annual: $-4,448/yr
• Cap rate: 3.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.34%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $43,008

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $86k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-371 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 325 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#152 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Scott County School District 2 (town): math 33% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #166 of 301 in IN (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Scott County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 325 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.