120 Bryan St

Park Hills, MO 63601

$49,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,029 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $877/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $361/mo
• Annual: $4,330/yr
• Cap rate: 14.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.99%
• DSCR: 2.38
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($877 rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#585 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Central R-III (town): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #150 of 324 in MO (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Elem. (555 students, 62% FRL); Central High (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #51 of 521 statewide, top 11%, 629 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 57% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Central R-III average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 134 units permitted in St. Francois County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 5.7% in Park Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.