94 Hillcrest Rd

Mammoth Spring, AR 72554

$157,500C-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,814 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 275 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,267/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$826
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $39/mo
• Annual: $462/yr
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.05%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $44,100

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($462/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (19.5% below list).
• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#7 in AR, #2,817 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mammoth Spring School District (town): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #126 of 238 in AR (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mammoth Spring Elem. School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #206 of 454 statewide, top 48%, 285 students, 100% FRL); Mammoth Spring High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #142 of 292 statewide, top 53%, 223 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP.
• Fulton County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (7.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.8% in Mammoth Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.