8252 Natures Dr

Gouldsboro, PA 18466

$270,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 941 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,959/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$140
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-333/mo
• Annual: $-3,996/yr
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.40%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (27.4% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#903 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 361 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $270k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?